Climate - Science Stuff

Up Here’s For Thinkin’

Here’s a graph I made and posted here a while ago:

The post in question is here: http://www.bravus.com.au/blog/?p=1911

Sorry about the lack of labels – x-axis is years, y-axis is million square km of Antarctic sea ice.

These data are for Antarctica, but the Arctic picture is similar. Why do I bring it out?

Because the claim ‘Arctic ice is growing at record rates’ is being bandied about to ‘debunk’ climate change.

Yes, the extent (area) of the ice is growing fast for part of the year. The onset of winter runs for a finite time in the year. And if you look at the graph above, you will note that the minima are getting smaller quicker than the maxima – there is a lot less ice in summer, and a little less in winter.

That means that, to get from the new lower minimum to the new also-lower-but-not-as-dramatically maximum, in the same amount of time, of course the ice extent has to grow faster – maybe even at record rates.

It also means, of course, that to get from the maximum to the new ever-lower minimum at the beginning of summer the ice is also shrinking at record rates… but that stat doesn’t get bandied about at all by the (and I use the term quite wrongly) ‘skeptics’.

Doesn’t mean the ice is actually expanding over time – quite the reverse. The total ice is shrinking, and markedly so. This is not evidence against climate change, but for it.

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