Science Stuff

Novel Coronavirus Update

Stats and graphs are from:

The novel coronavirus statistics are still very worrying, with more than 31,000 cases now and more than 630 fatalities.

There is some reason for hope, though: have a look at the slope of each of these curves. The deaths curve seems to have gone from exponential to linear, and the slope of the infections curve has actually started to decrease.
The impact will still be immense, but this pandemic is not growing in an out-of-control exponential way.

Fatality rates for those infected are estimated (on a fairly small sample size) at about 2%, and as with most other flus, those already frail – old people, children, ill people – are over-represented in the fatalities. That rate may also fall as more medical resources are deployed more effectively.

Comparisons between the fatalities from this novel virus versus the ‘normal’ seasonal flu don’t work very well, because the infected populations and even exposed populations are vastly different at this point.

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